AAJ TAK

Whether or not Dalit polarisation will reap advantages in Punjab must be seen

Synopsis

Of the 117 seats, 34 (one-third) seats are reserved for the scheduled castes. Among the reserved seats, eight of the 34 reserved seats respect bigger than 40% Dalit voters: Banga (49.71%); Kartarpur (48.82%); Phillaur (46.85%); Adampur (46.16%); Chabbewal (45.36%); Sham Chaurasi (44.67%); Bhoa (42.48%) and Malout (40.62%).

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The Punjab electoral panorama of 2022 is below a brand fresh challenger for the most foremost time since 1951 as Dalit votes will also tilt in favour of a Dalit chief minister in a utter the place every third voter is a Dalit. What makes Charanjit Singh Channi the pinnacle challenger in the February 2022 elections is the predominance of Dalit votes in every constituency of Punjab. Readily available facts on the delimitation of constituencies (2001 census) shows that out of 117 seats in Punjab, 98 constituencies respect Dalit voters starting from 49% to 20%.

Of the 117 seats, 34 (one-third) seats are reserved for the scheduled castes. Among the reserved seats, eight of the 34 reserved seats respect bigger than 40% Dalit voters: Banga (49.71%); Kartarpur (48.82%); Phillaur (46.85%); Adampur (46.16%); Chabbewal (45.36%); Sham Chaurasi (44.67%); Bhoa (42.48%) and Malout (40.62%).

Dalit votes


Channi is contesting from two seats


Chamkaur Sahib (34.54%) and Bhadaur (31.69%) — cashing on this predominance. Twelve seats respect Dalit voters starting from 35% to 39%; nine more seats respect Dalit voters starting from 34% to 30%. Handiest five seats respect Dalit voters between 25% and 30%. Reserved seats respect unusually excessive Dalit voters in Punjab not like other states the place they common from 15 to 20% voters. Within the reserved seats normally, higher castes choose the winner because Dalit votes derive split among the reserved contestants. Nonetheless with this excessive percentage of voters in these 34 reserved seats, even supposing 50% of the Dalit voters choose to survey for a Dalit CM, it’s a ways also a first step in the direction of forming the authorities.

Dalit predominance as voters continues in a majority of the 83 overall seats. Among the overall seats, the competition is continuously between non-Dalit candidates. A excessive Dalit voter presence typically constituencies will play primarily the most mandatory role in the winnability of a overall candidate.

Of the 83 unreserved constituencies, 25 respect a Dalit vote unfriendly starting from 43 to 30%, 21 respect Dalit voter fluctuate of 25%-29%, and 17 respect Dalit voters starting from 20% to 24%. This suggests that 64 out of 83 overall seats respect Dalit voter predominance starting from 43% to 20% votes.

Dalits will respect a mumble in 98 out of 117 seats in Punjab (34 reserved seats and 57 overall seats). In fashion seats with excessive Dalit voters will also be seen Nakodar (43.89%) Nawan Shahr (40.66%) Lambi (40.50%) Majitha (37.44%); Garhshankar (38.62%); Muktsar (35.38%); Kotkapura (35.64%); Faridkot (35.25%); Bhagha Purana (35.18%). Even Amritsar East seat of Navjot Sidhu has 21.91% Dalit voters. In multipolar elections the place a swing is foremost even by half of a percent, Dalit voters with a lowest presence of 10.46% also issues.

The sub-castes among Dalits give a clearer represent

Channi belongs to Ravidasi/Ramdassia/ Chamar/ Advert Dharmi community of the same castes, and constitute 42% of the SC inhabitants. They dominate the total 25 seats in Doaba. Hoshiarpur district has 75% Ravidasis among SCs; Bhagat Singh 84%; Jalandhar 54%; and Kapurthala 32%.

Aam Admi Social gathering and Shiromani Akali Dal strive to woo other Dalit castes: Balmiki/Majhabhi Sikhs who’re 31% of the SC inhabitants. They’re concentrated in urban areas and the Malwa utter. Mazhabhi Sikhs constitute 67% of the Dalit inhabitants in Moga; 50% in Bhatinda; 65% in Faridkot; 60% in Fatehgarh; and 60 in Muktsar. Nonetheless Ravidasis and Mazhabhi community inhabitants is evenly populated in the rest of Punjab in Barnala, Ferozpur and Mansa.

With AAP (Bhagwant Mann) and Shiromani Akali Dal (Sukhbir Badal) having Jat Sikh CM candidates and form not respect any excellent leaders from Mazhabhi Sikh/ Balmiki communities, their dependence upon Dalit voters from Balmiki and Mazhabhi Sikhs becomes dicey, if in case Dalits consolidate in the attend of Channi.Unlike religious polarisation in Uttar Pradesh, whether the polarisation of Dalit voters in Punjab, can present them the demographic dividend must be seen.

The author teaches political science in Delhi University

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the author. The facts and opinions expressed right here stay not replicate the views of www.economictimes.com.)

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